Una de las lecciones más básicas de la economía es que no se puede “tapar el sol con la mano” ni ir en contra del mercado. Si uno quiere controlar los precios, el mercado encontrará la forma de de evitarlo (mercado negro o paralelo, escasez de productos, etc). Pero esto significa un paso más allá, si se comprueban las sospechas, al intentar controlar ya no sólo los precios sino también los índices de precios.
La primer consecuencia directa que veo en esta situación, además de la lógica pérdida de confianza en las estadísticas oficiales, es la próxima aparición de un “Indice “paralelo” de Inflación“, o índice ajustado, elaborado por organismos privados o cámaras empresariales.
“La manipulación de las estadísticas oficiales para presentar un cuadro de situación favorable a las autoridades de turno es una de las tentaciones y debilidades a las que prácticamente ningún gobierno ha dejado de sucumbir. Por ello, es altamente preocupante el desplazamiento de la directora del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos Indec encargada de la medición de la inflación, que se produce en medio de fuertes presiones oficiales para controlar el alza de los precios.” de Editorial LANACION.com
El INDICE PARALELO ya apareció en “The Economist”, “private economists estimate the real figure between 1.5% and 2%”
From The Economist
Cooking the Books: The Government Massages Bad News
When a dash for economic growth produces double-digit inflation, most governments change their policies. But not that of Argentina: it has opted to keep the policies and change the inflation numbers. Last month, it sacked the head of the consumer-prices section of the National Statistics and Census Institute ( INDEC), replacing her with Beatriz Paglieri, a trade specialist at the economy ministry. Five days later the institute announced that January’s inflation was 1.1%. Private economists estimate that the real figure was between 1.5% and 2%.
This crude statistical jiggery-pokery suggests that officials reckon that inflation might be the only obstacle preventing Néstor Kirchner from winning a second term in a presidential election in October (though his wife may stand in his stead). After collapsing in 2001-02, the economy has notched up four years of growth of 9%. It has shown clear signs of overheating (see chart). The government’s response was price-freezing “agreements” with many businesses. But prices are still rising.
Ms Paglieri has the confidence of Guillermo Moreno, the secretary of internal trade and the government’s chief price enforcer. To arrive at the 1.1% figure for January, she apparently changed the institute’s methodology. It dropped from the index prepaid annual health-insurance policies, which come up for renewal in January and whose average cost rose by 22% over the past year. It also changed its sample of tourism companies, reporting that holiday costs had risen by only 3.7% in January, compared with 16.7% in the same month last year. According to an economist who formerly worked at the institute, between them these two changes reduced the inflation rate by 0.8 of a percentage point.
Officials may have had an eye on annual salary negotiations between unions and employers, which start this month. But “unions read the newspapers too, and the perception that people have of inflation is very different from the index,” says Javier González Fraga, a former central-bank president.
Argentina is still a long way from a return of the hyperinflation of the 1970s and 1980s. But many economists believe that prices of goods and services not covered by price controls will rise by 13-15% this year. Nipping inflation in the bud would require a rise in interest rates and curbs on public spending, as well as letting the peso appreciate. But first there is an election to be fought. It is shaping up to be a war of numbers.
Source: The Economist